Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Bear Market Coming

The market is now giving us a better picture of what is to come and it looks very bearish at this point. It closed well before the 200 day MA and that was the last major support a market breaks before heading into a substantial correction. The market is clearly oversold so we will see a bounce that will most likely fail to make a new high and which many will be selling into. So the next step will be to see where this wave bottoms and then we can calculate the bounce target area. The TA is at 1311 and dropping fast and I think the market will test it before heading down again. I was hoping to break even on my last trade but I might have to take a loss on it unfortunately. My plan for the bear market (if confirmed) will be to stay in cash or short when appropriate. For now, the impulse wave we are seeing is most likely a W3 and should be bouncing soon for a W4 before heading to the lowest point of the year.

Who would have thought people were going to see as soon as the debt ceiling deal passed.. this goes to show how unpredictable investing behavior can be at times.

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