Thursday, May 5, 2011

Short Term Confirmed Bearish

The 4th wave I was looking for is out of the question at this point and not it seems like we are in the process of correcting the wave from 1294, which technically would be a W2 of a W3. A mechanical TA system would have told us to sell as soon as it broke yesterday but because I am trying to minimize "whipsaws" by using Elliott Wave and the MACD, I held on to my long position. I was wrong in assuming a final 5th wave that would have recaptured the TA. So now I have a trapped position that I might or might not sell depending on how we test the TA at this point. The short term is now confirmed bearish so we'll probably be in this correction for a while before going up again.

The commodities and FX sell off today is in my opinion just a correction from overbought levels. The long term trend remains firmly positive and I think we'll see some good opportunities in metals and oil once it's done correcting. I will post entries for Silver, Oil and Gold when their trends turn up. In the meantime, I'd stay away from trading them as they are highly volatile in a bearish wave that started on Monday.

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