Thursday, March 24, 2011

1315 Target has been met.. watch coming bearish wave

The market closed today near 1310 but the 1315 target I posted yesterday has been technically met during after hours trading. I speculated on an Ascending Triangle pattern that completed in the e-minis and we woke up to the trust out of this triangle. And now that the area I had marked as a target has been met and the market is challenging the bearish trendline, I think we could call this enough for a counter rally. Now, what comes next will be the make or break wave for bulls and bears alike. I think we will retrace to test the TA which is currently at 1287 if the bearish wave starts tomorrow. If we get there in a sell off and the 1282 support is broken, then I think there is a good chance we'll see 1220 fairly soon. However, if we get there in corrective waves (zig zag waves), chances are the bottom is in for this correction and we will go on to new highs for the year. I favor the bearish case based on the trendline and the bad fundamentals but I will trade according where the trend takes me. As of today, the TA turned positive and if not reversed soon then the short term will officially turn bullish.

I suspected the high for the rally could be put in after hours so I took a short position at 1308 to hedge. And of course, we might see 1315 or even 1319 in the cash market before reversing but I think we're close enough for the market to start correcting (or selling off).

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