Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Targets met, significant top is coming

I posted yesterday's update late last night and when I looked at the futures the projection for 1640's seemed optimistic. But to my surprise, the market was trading at 1647 when I woke up so it is now clear to me the market is putting in a 5 wave count before another correction.

Last week I posted:

But if this is a W1, we should see the 1626 level hold for a W2 and then up from there to about the 1650 level, which goes in line with the Cup and Handle projection from couple of weeks ago.

Wave 2 did bottom at 1626 and I think the market is completing W3 for Int 5. So it seems like there is some more room to go and the ultimate revised projection for the entire structure from 1345 might end up being correct:


Target for final W5 1642-1668.

I have been doing these price projections based on my own calculations (If you know of anyone doing price projections based on the initial stages of a wave please let me know as I'd like to see their work) and I try to be conservative with the numbers, meaning I assume 5th waves will not extend. But if they do, then markets will continue higher before a top is in. So while I am sure the market will correct soon, it is hard to tell if the coming correction will be "the top" as we could see W4 after W4 until exhaustion. Based on the most recent multi-week count (the one that started at 1536). If W1 was from 1536 to 1592, then the market might overshoot the higher end of the target range. You guys know I seldom call tops, but going by the waves, the market is about to take a significant pause. The top will be confirmed by the Trend Average turning red.

I ended up buying back my VXX position at $18.24, so I've improved my cost avg substantially from the initial position taken when the market was at 1597. I have to count how many times I've traded this ETN but after being initially squeezed, I've brought down the cost avg from $19.30 to $18.59 and should the market follow the path on the chart, I will buy the other half and have myself a nice summer :) I am assuming the market will do at least a 5% correction which will translate into 80-100 SP500 points. That in turn should net about $5.20 to $6.50 on VXX.. we'll find out soon.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish 

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