Thursday, May 16, 2013


The correction that I have been expecting has now materialized but obviously it is still not clear if the market will correct on a W4 and launch again to a new high. Earlier in the day, the market seemed like it was forming a triangle which is a typical W4 formation. But towards the end of the day the market lost yesterday's low in what appears to be like a bearish W3 or a C wave. If this is a W3, prices will need to go down to the  Trend Average and preferably close below it tomorrow. If this is a C wave, then it should be done as a flat or perhaps test the Trend Average successfully and rally again from there. The market has not had 2 consecutive red days in a month, so a red day tomorrow would mean sellers are starting to show up. This is now a market where some people think it will go up forever which in a way is an ideal area for a top.

I also posted the long term chart, so you can see the targets I currently have for the current structure. The 1941 number I posted earlier is for the structure from 1076, the targets posted are for the structure that started at 1266.74.

Today I did good on my VXX position but I ended up making a mistake. I closed and took profit at 18.62 and then bought them back in the 18.30's.  However, because I had been trading a 3k  position for the last 2 weeks, I ended up buying back 3k and not the 5k I was supposed to. So I missed out on 2k of VXX and will close that position and start a new one for clarity purposes. My old position has now caught up to market price and already ahead on that one. Should the market bounce tomorrow, I will be buying the 2k position or one the rebound if we get the bearish 5 wave count.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish 

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