Friday, May 10, 2013

Flat or correction over?

The market has been bouncing on what seems like a B wave from the 1623 low and it has now retraced most of the initial sell off. So I think the market is either putting in an ABC Flat correction or a bullish W1.  If this is a flat then prices should stop rising at the 1635 level and then head down to 1623 and resume the rally. But if this is a W1, we should see the 1626 level hold for a W2 and then up from there to about the 1650 level, which goes in line with the Cup and Handle projection from couple of weeks ago. I have been able to call corrections fairly accurately over the past year but it's very hard to tell which one ends up being a "top", so I will be watching key levels in case the market continues rallying and adjust my hedge accordingly. 

I traded in and out my VXX position couple of times for a minor cost improvement and I was originally going to close the position and wait until Monday. But since I've been able to improve my cost average substantially since the 1597 short squeeze, I figure I'll stop loss the position if the market makes it to 1637 or better yet sell at a profit at 1623. Good thing I also have a long position to make me feel better when the market refuses to go down..

Have a Great Weekend!

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish 

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