Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Market must re-capture 200 DMA or else

The market gapped down today and re-captured the 200 DMA as I was speculating yesterday. However, there wasn't much conviction in the rebound and the close was well below the 200 DMA which adds to the bearish trend. However, there is one last bullish set up and it is a possible Triple Bottom Reversal on the 10 minute time frame. This would call for the market to test the low today, hold and rally strongly from there. So  I am hoping we'll see it tested tomorrow so I can buy back the XIV I sold, I would be buying at the test and set the stop at 5 points below today's low. The market is bound to rally or counter rally sooner rather than later so this set up provides a good reward/risk. If the level does not hold then more downside to come but the longer the market takes to make bearish advances, the stronger the rally will be. As it is the market is oversold but couple of strong down legs would make it really attractive and perhaps it will force politicians to come together for a solution to the Fiscal Cliff. If that is resolved (which I think it will be before Dec 15th), we will see a big rally.

Main S&P 500 Trends 

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio
  • 100% Long (China and HSI Only)

Short Term Trading Strategy 
  • Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012. 
  • Margin positions in gold initiated 11/06/2012.

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