Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Cup and Handle Pattern?

The market finished its bullish W3 today and ideally the Trend Average (currently at 1374) would be tested before putting in another bullish leg to 1400+. There chart looks bullish no matter how you look at it short term and today's sideways movement fits well into a W4. If the market successfully tests the TA and rallies we will have a "mini" cup and handle pattern so I drew it on the chart to see if the market follows it. The short term trend is still neutral but will be confirmed bullish with another close above it, the next bullish test is the 50 DMA. Looking at the news, market calls are all over the place with Goldman Sachs (which I take seriously as opposed to the likes of Faber, Prechter, Roubini, etc) predicting a correction to under 1300 before the year is over while other respectable traders like Doug Kass are bullish with predictions of 1500+. Lots of smart people with lots of opinions.. whatever the case might be, the Trend Average will dictate what is actually going to happen so I will be trading accordingly.

I ended up selling the rest of my XIV shares at $18.26 for a pretty good gain and I bought VXX at $ 31.54 for the W4. However, if today's high is breached I stop out of VXX which is probably one of the most dangerous ETFs out there.

Main S&P 500 Trends 

Short Term Trend = Neutral Leaning Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio
  • 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong).

Short Term Trading Strategy 
  • Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012
  • Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
  • Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
  • Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
  • Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

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