Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Losing the 200 DMA

I posted yesterday that the market had to re-capture the 200 DMA in order to start any meaningful bounce and for a minute I thought it was going to happen as futures were up 10 points in pre-market. However, the cash market had its own plan and broke through the potential triple bottom level and ended up the day at an 5 month low. So at this point, I am leaning towards seeing 1.612 of A or W1 or 1335 level and then we'll see where the long term trend is at that point. I continue to think the current panic is just part of a correction but I am not going to find the trend so I am staying out of the market until 1335 hits (if it does). I bought back XIV today (16.88) and had a 5 point stop so I stopped out at 1365 (16.66) so we'll see at what price XIV will be at 1335? This has been so far a persistent decline without any meaning counter rallies so I think if we get deeply oversold, we will get a huge rally/counter rally.

Main S&P 500 Trends 

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio
  • 100% Long (China and HSI Only)

Short Term Trading Strategy 
  • Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
  • Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
  • Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

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