Friday, November 16, 2012

Counter Rally

I was off on the bottom yesterday as a lower low was put in today at 1343 but right so far on a bounce materializing. The market got close to 1335 so it remains to be see if this level will be tested ultimately but for now the market should rally early next week to test the TA/200 DMA and try to re-capture it. I suppose this will all depend on what comes out of the Fiscal Cliff negotiations as a recession is almost assured should they fail to reach a deal and in turn a significant sell off in equities. But if they can maintain hope and perhaps seal a deal by Christmas, we will see a big year end rally. So as much I'd like to guess where the market is going, it is impossible to tell whether Obama and congress can find a middle ground to work so we'll just watch the key trends and see what the market does while things are up in the air.

I sold and bought back XIV today to position trade but made just an 4 cent improvement. But can't really complain since it's up quite a bit since yesterday. Hopefully we'll see the TA/200 DMA early next week..

Have a Great Weekend!

Main S&P 500 Trends 

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio
  • 100% Long (China and HSI Only) 

Short Term Trading Strategy 
  • Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 
  • Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
  • Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
  • Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

1 comment:

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