Friday, October 26, 2012

Market Update

The market ended putting in a significant bearish leg to 1400 in pre-market but the early GDP report lifted futures and the market recovered after the announcement. So whether the market is ready to start rallying to the 50 DMA yet remains to be seen early next week. Market is oversold and sellers will start getting exhausted so we might see a violent rally after a bottom is found. I still think the ultimate target for the market is the 200 DMA in the 1370's, so we'll see how long it takes to get there. Also, the sell off after hours coincided with the emerging market's 4th wave and perhaps all markets around the world will rally on the counter rally and that's where I will be selling :) Fundamentally speaking, the GDP numbers out today along with the UK and China numbers do look somewhat good. Obviously, it is still early to tell where the wold will be by next year but if economies can gain traction here, corporate profits will start improving and give the markets a reason to rally to higher highs. So I hope economies around the world continue to improve as we've had enough of financial crisis already.

Long Term Portfolio: 100% Long (Emerging Markets Only)
Short Term Trading Strategy: Sold XIV position from 10/19 at $16.10 (there goes my coffee!) - Bought XIV @17.64 as of 10/19.

Last but now least, if you are interested in Oil which is making a significant low here is an free article from EWI

Crude Oil Falls to a 3-Month Low: Why Blaming "Soft Economy" Isn't the Answer

Despite today's less-than-stellar global economic environment, as recently as April, crude was trading well over $100 a barrel.
Elliott Wave International

Have a Great Weekend!

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