Thursday, October 25, 2012

Intermediate Trend Confirmed Bearish

The market kept trading sideways today but made a slight lower low and the lack of bullish impulse has now turned the intermediate trend down as well. The market could still be working on another wave down so it's not clear where the market will be near term but the bearish intermediate trend change is essentially confirmed so I exited the XIV position at 16.10. I'll buy it back when the trend changes to the bullish side after the market finishes doing its correction. If anything, I might buy back some VXX at the test of the TA/50 day ma to hedge my emerging market positions.. which have now gone up for 10 straight sessions! In couple of years of doing this, I don't remember a time when the US was selling off while emerging markets were going up by this much. Perhaps, some people are doing the same thing I did which was taking profit in the US and shifting it overseas? whatever the case, lower lows are now likely for the US market and new opportunities will be found when the correction is over.

Long Term Portfolio: 100% Long (Emerging Markets Only)
Short Term Trading Strategy: Sold XIV position from 10/19 at $16.10 (there goes my coffee!) - Bought XIV @17.64 as of 10/19.

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