Monday, October 15, 2012

Bullish W1 or A Wave?

The market behaved as I had hoped and did not mess up the perfect 5 wave count I had So now we are seeing the bounce after an initial successful test of the 50 day ma, again as I had said previously on my post from early September. The big question now is whether this wave is going to be a W1 or an A on a short term basis. If we get a strong W3 then odds will favor the market challenging the year's high again. Obviously if we get an ABC then the market might come down further and meet the 200 day ma. I sold the XIV position and I will be buying again at the B or W2 and then see how the market behaves at the test of the trend average.

Also, I wanted to point out that Gold is getting closer to completing the "Handle" area so I will be buying some soon hopefully. And emerging markets keep on going up and up :) Perhaps this is premature to say at this point but maybe the correction that started in 2000 is coming to an end after a 12 year sideways move. So a break out seems to be on the horizon. If this is the case, we should start preparing for a strong bull market.. and yes there are some people who are still predicting the end of the world in the next few weeks/months (most notably Prechter who has been calling for a catastrophic crash "any day" since 1990.. and people STILL pay him for investing advice!!) but I think it's all just a bunch of malarkey as Joe would to say :)

Long Term Portfolio: 100% Long (Emerging Markets Only)
Short Term Trading Strategy: Closed XIV @17.78 as of 10/15 - Bought XIV @17.33 as of 10/12. Selling and hedging longs depending on how the market trades around the Trend Average test which is coming soon.

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