Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Counter Rally to TA

I was expecting lower lows yesterday after a bounce but the bullish wave got stopped on its tracks and today we got a significant sell off. Technically, the market is now oversold and a strong rally is coming that should test the Trend Average currently at 1439. Whether or not this wave will be able to re-capture the TA is up in the air but I favor another leg down after the test to the 200 day ma. So we'll see how the market evolves in the next few sessions. This counter rally would go well with a 5th bullish wave in the emerging markets. The problem is there hasn't even been a 4th there yet, so it's interesting to see the US selling off and "riskier" markets go up. Which is the complete opposite to what usually happens. Also, gold is approaching its Fib retrace area and will be a buy very soon.

Lastly, I should add that unless the market pulls the TA back up, the intermediate trend will turn bearish and that is a sell signal. I believe the market is just doing a normal correction, nonetheless the opportunity to benefit from short positions is on the horizon unless the markets can pull one out of the hat.

Long Term Portfolio: 100% Long (Emerging Markets Only)
Short Term Trading Strategy: Bought XIV @17.64 as of 10/19. Selling XIV position on the counter rally.

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