Market Update October 29th

The market did not do much today. I was expecting the GDP report to cause a strong move but it basically triangulated all day. On the bullish side, the market respected the level I watch for trend change and there are couple of technical set ups that point higher. First, we have a smaller inverse Head and Shoulders set up that points to 1204 and an small Ascending Triangle targeting 1190. In addition, the market did not test yesterday's low at all so it points to a bullish bias. The one negative I see is that the MACD started to roll over on the 30 minute time frame so we should see a strong move either way early next week. My Elliott Wave count remains the same and it will be validated if we get the trust up or negated if the 1172 low is taken out.

I traded short for a brief moment today but I got stopped at break even. So for the week, I had 4 successful day trades, 2 break evens and 0 loss trades with a return of +3% of the total portfolio. I will be holding cash overnight in the meantime until I see a set up I feel comfortable with.

Market Update - October 28th

The market gapped up as I was hoping and I shorted as planned. The market respected the 1180-81 level and I went long in the last hour to take advantage of the obvious. So it was a fruitful day for me and I am all cash again. Since the trend is up and the wave structure seems to point to yet another gap tomorrow, I will probably short again depending on how strong it is. On the chart, I see a potential for a W3 so if it's something over 1%, I'll short it but very carefully as W4 sometimes do not correct much in strong gaps.

I think 1200 might be challenged tomorrow.. we'll see.

Elliott Wave Update - October 27th

Today's market action invalidated my count yesterday but indexes closed towards the upper range of the day and above 1179 so the uptrend is still intact. I used today's initial gap down to go long and booked some profit at the Fib 38 retrace. I also shorted at 1179 in the final hour but got stopped at break even and now I am all cash again. I've see some Triangulating counts and Ending Diagonal bullish counts that call for a new high soon. My own prediction is that we will get to 1207 if we don't see any closes under 1180 (the level changes everyday). So tomorrow I will short at a a bullish gap or long at a bearish gap for intraday trades.

Elliott Wave Update - October 26th

The market continues to trend up and it set itself up for possibly new highs in the next couple of days. The dollar strength has done much to stop the rally so I think the real catalyst is the QE announcement in November. Until then, traders are positioning themselves for the implications for more money in the system. I am continue to watch the level for support, until the market closes under it, I will go long (like I did today) at this number or short on bullish gaps. This strategy has worked very well and I get much better sleep.. but as soon as the trend turns south, I will hold leveraged shorts overnight.

Morning Post: Market bounced off the level I was watching. I traded long and now there is an inverse Head and Shoulders that targets 1210.

Elliott Wave Update - October 25th

The market gapped up as expected and I shorted a tad early at 1192 but I closed all shorts at the end of the day with a 6 point gain so not a bad day. I think the market is not done going up. I will be looking for higher highs to short (or test of the level I watch to go long) and as long as 1178.5 does not get closed under, I will not stay overnight short or long for that matter. I'll add a chart soon.

Elliott Wave Update - October 22nd

The market triangulated most of the session on Friday and it points to a burst higher on Monday on a 5 wave. The number I am watching as a top is 1193 but I'll re-short as close to it as long as the impulse is less than 1%. I imagine people using the G-20 gathering as an excuse to push the market higher. Also, we have a lot of companies announcing this week which should put a positive bias to the trend. However, the end of the week should get interesting as we are approaching elections and the announcement of Q2. My guess is that the pullback will come around that time and we will see 1200 or 1219 by then. And once we get a decent correction to the 50 MA? I will be going long as everything points to a bull market as this point. Never mind how the economy sucks, as long as there is "depreciation" of the dollar as Geitner himself over the weekend, assets will go up.

Elliott Wave Update - October 21st

I think there is a potential strong move either way tomorrow. There is increased volatility and the support levels have been broken several times so maybe the top might be very close. But as long as we close over 1175, there is a chance for more upside. I am holding short overnight because I am leaning towards a reversal but if we test 1175 and doesn't go down hard then I will use 1175 as the spot to go long again. I was hoping we would get to 1167 today for the inverse Head and Shoulder set up but it stopped a few points short of it.

As far as the EW count, there are two ways at looking at the current wave. We either have a bullish W3 tomorrow morning or a bearish W3 sell off, looking at the chart it looks like we will get a violent move. Once this new wave reveals itself, there will be more clarity on the rest of the structure. And btw, there is a potential Broadening top set up so I will be posting the trendlines on that soon.