Tuesday, August 13, 2013

New 5 wave count to 1700+?

The market managed to test the level I mentioned yesterday for the 7th time to bounce right off. But this time there is a a chance the bounce wave could be a bullish W1 so we'll have to wait for the wave to complete and see what the reversal looks like. So far it looks like the W3 of this bounce wave is done (one could argue for a complete 5 wave micro structure) and the retracement towards the end of the day was its W4 on the micro count. And as I said yesterday, the 1680-85 level holding is a good thing for the bulls and the longer it takes to break the 1680-85 level, the higher the chances we will see a rally to challenge all time high. Looking at the fundamental picture, the fairly positive numbers coming out of Europe, China, Japan and the US sets a floor to the likely correction in the US markets once QE is taken off. And perhaps we will indeed see SP2000+ in the next couple of years. Now, if China would just double from here during this time I'd be a retired happy camper :)

My FXI position I took in June is finally looking good but instead of closing it to take profit I chose to buy back the VXX position to hedge it. But I'll continue to position trade VXX until we reach a point where I can hold on to it.

Main S&P 500 Trends*

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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