Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Intermediate Trend is confirmed bearish

I was expecting the market to go down yesterday and down it went. Now that we have this wave, the count looks better with the recent 5 waves that were finished as part of a W3 with the high yesterday as W4 and now W5 which should be ending soon. Also, the Intermediate Trend is now solid red so we have both the short term and intermediate in red which warrants even more caution in rallies that fall short of recapturing these key trends. The key 1626 level I mentioned last week has yet to be breached despite the sell off so we'll see if that level will hold further bearish advances. Now, on the reasons we're selling off which are primarily Syria and the debt ceiling. I think these are just good excuses to correct, we've seen many of these types of of events in the last few years which usually end up being non-events as far as the stock market goes. Personally, I hope they let the UN do something and not the US acting alone again! the human tragedy over there must be accounted for but last time I checked I thought the main purpose of the military was to protect the homeland not policing the world.

I missed the first sell off last week by selling VXX a day too soon but this time was different. So I sold VXX around 1635 and went long Google again for a much better price than I sold last week. I will add more longs if we get to the 1626 level, if not then looking to sell on a test of the 50 dma or 1670.

Main S&P 500 Trends*

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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