Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Lower lows ahead?

The market follow through today with the 5th leg of what should be an A or W1 and counter rallied the rest of the day in what I see as a micro 5 wave, so perhaps we will see an ABC pattern that will challenge 1697-99 and the Trend Average in the process. As in the past, we have seen simple 5 wave corrections that were followed immediately by rallies so one has to be ready for more upside in case 97-99 breaks. But odds favor further downside, specifically if the bounce is stopped at the 97-99 area then we should see a 5 wave structure to challenge 1676. I had been expecting this correction but we still don't have enough to know whether this is a W4 that will be followed by a bullish wave to an all time high or a W2 that will be followed by an much higher high.

My plan was to go long today at 90-91 but since the gap took the market down to 1685 support I went long there and sold at the end of 5 micro waves at 1693. My VXX position has gotten better but still underwater so in the meantime I will have to subsidize that position with my other trades.

And if you haven't taken the sentiment poll, please do so at:

Main S&P 500 Trends*

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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