Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Possible Wedge for X wave

The market broke the 1649 resistance level I had been watching today as I was expecting. However, this W3 seems to be lacking momentum and it is looking like a wedge is being put in. So if we get a mild correction starting tomorrow that holds around the lower green trendline on the chart, then there is a good chance we'll see one more bullish wave to the 1670 area before falling back again. This set up lines up well with the X wave of a double zig zag from the 1687 top and this should give the market enough time to form a good base to rally from. Should the market break out in a strong wave then we could forget about the rising wedge but for now that seems like a very likely outcome which should make both bulls and bears can profit from it. With today's close the short term trend turns green, so that will be a good level to watch when the market corrects.

I ended selling XIV at a loss (which I bought when the market was in the 1620's) and I am position trading FXI overnight. In the past, fear in the market usually dissipates as the market rallies. But this time there are many traders who are not convinced, thus the lack of progress on the XIV. Going forward, I think I will stick to VXX to hedge and UPRO to long the market along with some FXI.

Main S&P 500 Trends*

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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