Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Going for 1623-26?

The bulls finally showed up today and now I have something to work with. The wave today looked like a W3 of a bullish count which easily broke the previous 1597 resistance level and now it is in the original target range I first posted couple of days ago. So assuming this is a standard 5 wave count the structure should challenge the 1623-26 level  before going into another bearish wave. However, should this wave fall short of that target by being stopped before 1614 then there's a good possibility we are looking at an ABC structure. The market has now officially corrected almost one month and a half and my guess is that we are getting closer to the end of the correction. We are still getting mixed economic reports, with the latest GDP number coming in below expectations and that will put aside the main excuse for the correction which was the end of QE. But if you guys remember, there was no excuse the day the market topped and reversed hard at 1687(other than the fact the 5th wave had ended). The end of QE became headlines after the fact, so this market will make a sudden turn to the bullish side and then the financial media will give us good reasons why the market is rallying but in the end we know it's because there was a 5th wave left :)

I was tempted to short near the high today but I figure the market is likely to challenge 1614 so I'll probably load up on some shorts there just in case this is an ABC. At the same time I'd be surprised if the market makes it to 1614 and doesn't challenge the 50 day ma and attempts to close the gap in the 1620's area. So I guess I'll get up early for a change and micro count whatever is coming.

Main S&P 500 Trends*

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Neutral Leaning Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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