Thursday, June 27, 2013

Gap to be challenged?

The market made it to the 50 DMA today as I had been speculating before quickly reversing. But the reversal came in form of a triangle so the most likely move now would be for the market to close the gap from last week in the 1625-1630 area. If we assume the triangle today was a completed W4, then the target will be 1638 assuming W1=W5. I was assuming we would get a deeper retracement for W4 but that's not what the market wanted to do. In fact, there is also a possibility that this triangle is just part of the W3, so this wave might get tricky for people who want to short it. Obviously, should the market sell off from here then it will mean this was just an ABC but usually C waves don't top and then move on to a triangle, they reverse quickly.

I set my automated trade trigger today at 1617 and went short with SDS but ended up closing the position near the end of the day when the triangle started to look likely. So made just enough for a few cups of joe but I will be looking for the gap or perhaps a strong close tomorrow to buy back shorts.

Main S&P 500 Trends*

Short Term Trend = Bearish Leaning Neutral
Medium Term Trend = Neutral Leaning Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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