Short Term Trend Bearish Confirmation

The market broke one of the key support levels today and closed under the Trend Average again, turning the short term trend to the bearish side. The next key levels for support are the 50 DMA at 1413 and 1411, if these levels don't hold then down the market goes. However, I get the feeling that the market is just waiting for Washington to make up its mind on the whole Fiscal Cliff issue before going one way or another. Looking around the world, almost all markets are rallying so either the US joins the worldwide rally or drags other markets down. The HSI reached a 52 week high tonight (just a few points from the ideal 22,750 level I had been targeting)  and the Nikkei has rallied 18% in just a few weeks, ironically from about the time a recession was officially declared in Japan. So I am just going to be patient and see what the US is going to do and its effects on the markets I'm invested in. If those rallies find a top, I'll get out and buy again them again at a later time.

The Nikkei btw is likely to reach parity with the DOW due to its currency debasement policy, so it could easily go up to 13,000 in the not too distant future. I remember when I was in Japan just a few years ago (2007) the yen was 115, today it trades at 85 to a dollar. So if their QE manages to devalue the Yen back to 115, then Nikkei 13,000-15,000 would be an easy target based on currency devaluation alone.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Neutral Leaning Bullish (change of trend imminent if market remains above the TA)

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement.

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Retirement Goal 

As of 12/18/2012 - 10.8%*
* Percentage gain for total liquid portfolio dated September 2012, Goal is to double portfolio for retirement by September 2015