Consolidation

The market consolidated its gains today and perhaps it might continue to do so tomorrow. But the market is technically be ready for another bullish leg to yet another new high for the post financial crisis rally. Seems like it was just last week where 1475 was the main target since the market had some convinced that was some sort of "long term top". So for now we'll see how the market behaves at the 1523 level, if the market is able to cut through that resistance level then it might head to 1540-1550 in a short period of time. Isn't top picking fun? lol..

I will be adding back the hedge soon hopefully or I might just wait for the TA to give me confirmation. FXI is trading under $40 so that's good, at $38 I will be a very happy.. lastly, someone asked about Gold. I think it is till working on a long term correction (possible triple bottom) so it should resume a long term bullish leg sooner rather than later. And for the record, I am not on margin for my GLD trade because I sold 20% of my long term position, so trading my own capital technically speaking.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 60% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 800 VXX @23.70 and 1700 SPXU@ 31.68
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.70 to position trade on 01/25/2013. Took loss $2.00
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Position in gold is $4k

The rally continues

The market broke key resistance today and it looks like it will continue to go up despite all the reasons why it should take a break here. Also, there is a possible inverted head and shoulders that targets 1535 the wave today might just be a bullish W3. I did not label it yet as I want to see what Monday looks like but I covered the SPXU portion and buying it back next time I see a bearish sign. I predicted in December the market would likely hit 1600 if there is no recession and by the way it's going, we'll see 1600 by Spring. What's frustrating is the lack of corrections and again this is just clear proof the market goes up when it wants to go up regardless of what fundamental or technical reason why it shouldn't. The one thing that has gotten the market right is the Trend Average as it has only been breached for 1 day but has not changed trend since Jan 1st.

Have a Great Weekend!

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 60% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 800 VXX @23.70 and 1700 SPXU@ 31.68
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.70 to position trade on 01/25/2013. Took loss $2.00
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Topping or another sideways correction?

It's been now about 2 weeks since I believed the market had reached a potential top and look where we are today. This is a market that's hard to hedge, let alone short and today we are still waiting for a significant move to confirm the next leg. I mentioned yesterday that if 1512 held there was a good chance we could see 1495 tested and I guess the market got somewhat close by bottoming at 1498 before rebounding and making up again more of the losses for the day. However, there is still lower highs the market has to deal with so again if continue to get lower highs, specially one topping around 1510 then we'll have a bearish pattern set and will likely tip the market to the downside. But if the market can overcome these overhead resistance levels then it will clear the way for more upside. But to add perspective, I posted the long term chart so you can see what the market looks like at the "macro" level. The RSI has been making lower highs while the market has gone up, there is a daily cross on the MACD (which has been whipsawed only 2 times out of 12 crosses, so an 84% chance of the cross pointing to a top). And lastly, there is a bearish trend confirmation of many of the global markets, most notably Europe and HSI. So just like the US ended up catching up to the world with the current rally, it should end up catching up to the bearish side sooner rather than later.

The 20% I've sold have started a good correction and should the US correction kick in, I will buy back that portion at a great price. I've started trading that 20% using a certain set of rules (mostly based on "opinion") and if I buy at the Fib retracement level (which would equate to an 8-15% correction) and get another 20% run. I will have doubled my capital on that 20% since the time I started applying this system in the fall of 2011. If I tweak that system, I might get an even better return so we'll see.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Neutral

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 60% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 800 VXX @23.70 and 1700 SPXU@ 31.68
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.70 to position trade on 01/25/2013. Took loss $2.00
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Market Update

The market gapped down today and was able to retrace its loses by the end of the day in what looks like a corrective pattern so far. And my guess is if 1512.53 holds then we might see a gap down or a stronger bearish wave towards the 1495 area. What happens then might confirm a trend change but for now the market continues to trade in bullish territory. There seems to be more and more "correction" headlines now so perhaps we are probably getting closer, but like I said couple of weeks ago top picking is not easy. Among some of the articles I found interesting is the one below, which calls for similar levels and patterns from Art Cashing as I have in the past few days:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100440605

There is also commentary from Byron Wien, who was among the most accurate in predicting 2012. And Doug Kass who has been all over the place calling a top, only problem is he started shorting early around 1465 so he has a big incentive in sounding alarms. I did some research on them to see their most recent calls and here they are..

Byron Wien 2012 Predictions
Byron Wien 2013 Predictions

Doug Kass 2012 Predictions

So we should know soon how accurate they will be this year. I personally think we will see 1600 by the end of 2013.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Neutral

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 60% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 800 VXX @23.70 and 1700 SPXU@ 31.68
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.70 to position trade on 01/25/2013. Took loss $2.00
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Expanding Triangle?

 

I was expecting an "ideal" bounce today to the 1510 level today for an head and shoulders formation but the market exceeded that level and put in another high. So in a sense we could say the bullish action negates the lower low from yesterday, specially now that the market is comfortably above the Trend Average again. However, the market looks like it could be putting in an expanding triangle aka megaphone top. They usually happen on the 5th wave or at market tops/bottoms, so there is a good probability the market did indeed top. At the micro count level there is a stand alone W3, so we'll see what the next bearish wave brings. If we get a corrective wave then it just means more upside but for now I am going with the top (the opinion side of me).

Also, given the bearish action in the HSI, I applied 100% of my hedge today in addition to the 20% I've already sold. Which basically, leaves me 60% long. I will add the totals later for the loss on the VXX hedge but for now I applied 1/3 VXX at 23.68 and 2/3 SPXU at 31.68.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Neutral

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 80% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.68 to position trade on 01/25/2013
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

 

50 Day Moving Average Test

The market seems to have completed the 5th wave (truncating the micro count I had) so now we should see the start of a correction. Key levels were breached today and the market finally closed under the Trend Average, a first in over a month. Additionally, I see I bearish engulfing pattern potential so a top is likely. In an ideal world we will see a bounce back to the 1507-1510 area and then resume a bigger bearish wave. If the market doesn't bounce before 1491, then we might see a big down day before any bounce. I had been expecting a correction since the 1480-1490's so this is not a big surprise. What matters now is where the correction will find its bottom and I am thinking the market intends to visit the 50 day moving average currently trading at 1447 and going up a few points per day. This would fit well into a 50% retracement of the wave from 1398 and gap support from Jan 1st. So we'll see how well the market can handle the coming selling pressure. And obviously, we need confirmation of trend change before officially calling it a top at 1514 but I'd give it a 75% chance the short term top is in.

I will be loading back on my hedges on the rebound. Technically speaking, I did the right thing when I sold my hedge at 1501 as I was expecting 1513, but VXX was actually higher at 1513 than when I sold. So in the future I might just hedged directly with 2X or 3X S&P500 ETFs as I need better correlation between market price and trading vehicle. It has happened to me before so this will probably be the last time I get into volatility. Also, HSI seems to have confirmed a top so that just adds likelihood of a top in the US.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Neutral leaning bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 80% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.68 to position trade on 01/25/2013
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Going for an all time high?

I mentioned yesterday that the DOW was probably going for the all time high and with today's rally, we might just see that high before any substantial pullback. And who knows, maybe even the S&P500 will do the same as it is just about 2% away. Again, the markets are very overbought on almost every technical and sentiment indicator there is but the market is free to continue its bull run, I said in December the US would catch up with the world if the Fiscal Cliff was resolved and this is exactly what the market has been doing. To give you guys an example of how markets can throw everyone off, look at the second chart from China's SSEC. You can see where I first spotted a potential top based on technical analysis and waves at the top of the Fibonacci bars. There was divergence on the RSI, bearish cross on the MACD, etc. (but not its Trend Average) and I took 10% of profits there (and the other 10% before the Fiscal Cliff resolution based on risk management). The markets suddenly reversed and now it's much higher and still very overbought, so we could well see the same thing here in the US. Also, that chart I posted yesterday from 1997 is on a weekly basis and look how technically overbought it got. A traditional TA or Wave person would probably have missed most of the bullish run in 1997. This is the reason why I've stayed 80% long during all this time (despite what is now almost a 25% bull run on Chinese equities with NO correction), I trade 20% on "opinion" (RSI, MACD, Waves, Sentiment, news, etc.) and 80% on facts (the 3 main trends). So to people who don't like missing the markets, I would recommend using a similar approach so you will be at least partially rewarded with your decisions. I am currently 20% "sad" that I missed some of the bull run but then I get happy when I see the other 80%.. :)

Have a Great Weekend!

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 80% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.68 to position trade on 01/25/2013
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Retirement Goal 

As of 01/02/2013 - 13.5%*
* Percentage gain for total liquid portfolio that started in September 2012, Goal is to double portfolio for retirement by September 2015, with 100% being the ideal retirement level.