Market Update

The market gapped down today and was able to retrace its loses by the end of the day in what looks like a corrective pattern so far. And my guess is if 1512.53 holds then we might see a gap down or a stronger bearish wave towards the 1495 area. What happens then might confirm a trend change but for now the market continues to trade in bullish territory. There seems to be more and more "correction" headlines now so perhaps we are probably getting closer, but like I said couple of weeks ago top picking is not easy. Among some of the articles I found interesting is the one below, which calls for similar levels and patterns from Art Cashing as I have in the past few days:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100440605

There is also commentary from Byron Wien, who was among the most accurate in predicting 2012. And Doug Kass who has been all over the place calling a top, only problem is he started shorting early around 1465 so he has a big incentive in sounding alarms. I did some research on them to see their most recent calls and here they are..

Byron Wien 2012 Predictions
Byron Wien 2013 Predictions

Doug Kass 2012 Predictions

So we should know soon how accurate they will be this year. I personally think we will see 1600 by the end of 2013.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Neutral

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 60% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 800 VXX @23.70 and 1700 SPXU@ 31.68
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.70 to position trade on 01/25/2013. Took loss $2.00
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k