Monday, March 16, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 16

The market has plunged again. Despite having one of the strongest rallies ever on Friday, prices had an almost -12% decline. One of the biggest in history. So, looking at the count it seems like the top made on Friday was a W4 and there is still more downside to come on a W5. Support as I said last week is 2346 which is not looking like it will hold.  Below that is 2134 and if that doesn't stop the selling then there isn't much to hold the market until 1867. The Feds are now basically almost out of bullets as it dropped rates to near zero and are implementing QE like efforts but the problem we now have is not monetary. It's an admission that we are going into a recession and we have no idea when it will stop or how bad it will get as the worst numbers have not even come out yet. Trump has gone from saying the virus under "tremendous control" to "maybe the virus will last until August". Had Trump actually listened to experts in early February and taken the whole thing seriously as any normal person would, we wouldn't see the crisis we are seeing right now. So while the virus is a black swan event, it could have been handled completely different. The sad thing now is that blue states are moving ahead on their own with the most strict measures and the Federal government seem to be following the blue states lead with the red states being left behind. What this means is that red states are now the most unprepared for this because they have been trusting Trump all along with his "expert" assessment of pandemics and viruses. Trump is basically done despite giving himself a "10 out of 10" on his handling of the virus.

Stay safe and healthy!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

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