Friday, March 13, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 13

The market staged a strong counter-rally today after the market bottomed in the 2300+ area (taking into account pre-market prices), posting one of the strongest rallies since 2008. However, the week closed -8.43% and in a bear market territory. Assuming the sell-off this week is a completed C wave, we should see a continued bounce towards a test of the Trend Average before another bearish leg to lowers lows. However, if the market makes continues to sell-off early next week then we are looking possibly at a W3 which much lower prices to come in the near future. Considering the really bad news will probably come later next week or in a couple of weeks, a continued rally would make sense before another plunge. The nation is finally officially on alert now that Trump announced a national emergency (about 2 weeks too late) and the panic is just barely getting started. So the fundamental picture favors substantially lower lows. Whether they will come in the next few weeks or a few months down the line remains to be seen. At this point it's obviously impossible to predict the ultimate bottom but I think if the number of infections end up being in the hundreds of thousands we could be looking at a similar drop percentage-wise as the one we had during the financial crisis from all-time highs. The equivalent to 666 in today's numbers is 1450 more or less. So perhaps, this is a chance to multiply your capital after patiently waiting for years as I am sure once everything clears up we will see prices go back to all-time highs.

Stay safe and healthy!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

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