Friday, August 7, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 7

The market seems to have completed a 5 wave count to a lower low at 2067, which is just barely above the critical 2064 level. The wave count on the SP500 continues to point to more upside ahead but the situation in the DJIA paints a completely different picture and it is starting to look doubtful the technology sector will be able to maintain its most recent bullish momentum. In all, market trends are proving to be more accurate in predicting direction and a breach of 2064 will solidify the bearish trend. Which brings up the possibility of a recession, if you believe the stock market is a predictor of recessions.

"Should a recession come during Obama's last year, Jeb Bush will be the new President imo."

Which I posted last year (Before Jeb Bush announced I might add) . And looking at the debate from last night, I think J Bush has a good chance of pulling it off as he seemed experienced and Presidential. Most of the other candidates seemed competent but not all looked electable. I think in order for the GOP to win, they have to have a nominee who will appeal to the center and independents. I for one, can not vote for someone like Hilary because I don't like her economic beliefs or her populist talk. At the same time, I can't vote for a right wing nut whose priority is to move the US embassy to Jerusalem on his first day as President (how is that of any national interest is beyond me). So here are my impressions from last nights debate, which is the first time I've heard any of them talk with the exception of motor mouth.

Huckabee - Decent man, great closing, has specific plans but probably too socially conservative to get my vote
Ted Cruz - Foaming-at-the-mouth right wing nut
Rubio- Strong closing, looks too young, has a bad record of personal finances
John Kasich - Strong closing, sounds decent, has a shot
Ben Carson - First Doctor to separate co-joined twins at the head, not as bad as the leftist media paints him to be
Gov Christie - I like this guy but need to research more
Rand Paul - I actually agree with him on a lot of things, probably more than everyone else but he doesn't look like he can win
Scott Walker - Competent, looks young, not sure he has enough experience
Jeb Bush - If he is more like his dad than his brother, I'd probably vote for him. Admitting the war in Iraq was a mistake is a step in the right direction
Trump - Opportunistic, manipulative, megalomaniac. If the GOP loses 2016 it will be thanks to this man, who interestingly enough was a lifelong democrat up until 2010.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics

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