Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 11

The market sold off today but found support at 2076 before counter-rallying towards the end of the session. If yesterday's wave was a bullish W1 then we should see the start of a bullish W3 as soon as tomorrow. However, if the bullish count assumption is wrong then we could see a strong sell off wave in the next few sessions that will fall through all major support levels, specially 2039. The DJIA officially has a death cross (the media hasn't picked up on it but I'm sure we'll see people talk about it soon), again a first in 4 years and the assumption is lower lows are coming on that index and eventually all markets will end up following. The question now is how long will it take to reverse that death cross, the last one occurred in August 2011 and was not reversed until February 2012. If this is a LT W4, we might see a similar or shorter time frame. Lastly, now that China has decided to de-peg from the US dollar, a strong currency will be a drag on the US economy and its multi-nationals. This scenario lines up well with a LW W4 count, a stronger correction but not a bear market. Maybe a 10-15% correction at last?

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics

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