Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 4

The market made a slightly new  high today after a minor correction, so again the 5 count could have completed today at 2054, which is just 1 point short of my original 5 count target of 2055. But I see an expanding triangle on the micro count and that's usually a W4 or a megaphone top, so I'll give the bulls a chance to challenge the 2064 level. Actually, the target for that expanding triangle is 2074 so a completion of the pattern would solidify the bullish case.

Oil fell almost 9% today, which I assume it's a B or a W2 wave. So we should see oil continue to support the market. It's interesting that oil companies barely moved today despite the inventory glut, but what that tells me is that the glut is already priced in. What oil and energy stocks are now pricing is the impact from lower production due to capex cuts. Just like too much investment led to overproduction, not enough investment can lead to an oil shortage. And in a way, this is what OPEC had in mind when they decided not to cut couple of months ago. It was a deliberate move to force out North American oil out of the market and essentially manipulate the market as they always have. So I ended up buying USO again, which I might exchange for oil company stocks but we'll see. My equity longs are doing well, they just need to go up 20% more! lol.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

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