Friday, February 20, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 20

"The bottom line is bears had an opportunity to bring down the market in the past 4 weeks but prices are still above the 50 DMA. And now that oscillators have reset, odds favor sentiment swinging towards the bullish side."

It was just two weeks ago that I posted the statement above when the market started trading above its 50 DMA, and now we are seeing what bullish sentiment looks like with new all time highs in all major markets (post-bubble in the Nasdaq). Now, with that in mind, we know better because we are counting waves here. And it seems like the W4 was the quick bearish move early morning and now the market is working on its 5th wave towards 2150, assuming the 5th wave will be at least the length of the 1st wave. The cash market chart has the W1 at 2072 and W2 at 2041, but I favor the wave count that takes into consideration the pre-market action that had W1 at 2050. If we use pre-market prices, W3 looks like it started around in the 2025-2030 cash equivalent and the "look" of the entire structure from 1980 would make more sense. So, I continue to expect new all time highs continuing in the next week or two until the market finishes the count. Once all the buying exhausts, maybe the market will start paying more attention to Oil, Putin, or whatever "alarming" reason to correct once again and bring back a healthy doze of bearish hysteria once again.. works like clockwork!

I will definitely go short once the structure completes, just not sure if to hedge longs or to go net short on my trading portfolio. My longs in that portfolio have been there since October if I remember correctly and up quite a bit. Maybe I'll get me some VXX and make enough money to pay my 2014 tax bill.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

No comments:

Post a Comment