Monday, December 29, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 29

The bullish momentum continued today and we got another all time high. However, the market might be getting ready for a Trend Avg test before another leg up. Oil made a lower low for the year, which suggest there is another bearish wave in the works. So oil prices could be the excuse for a mild correction, hard to tell how much lower oil will go but on the W4 triangle that I've been tracking, it seems like $48-50 is the target for WTI. I will will probably go long on oil again if that level provides support. Also, an ETF I am looking to buy in the future is RSX (Russia). It seems likely that it will test its financial crisis low at $10 (when oil reached $33), so I will be making a long term bet that Russia and oil comes back. That ETF could easily double once oil and the crisis with the Ruble stabilizes. Lastly, to put into perspective what is causing the oil to sell off, here is a link to the US EIA

Demand is expected to grow, the problem is supply is growing faster. The extra supply is about 1-2 million barrels out of 90 million barrels per day produced worldwide. OPEC doesn't want to be the only group cutting, so Non-OPEC producers need to come up with a plan to make it viable for everyone to produce without undercutting each other. Once that happens, oil will be going up if demand grows as expected. Mark my words.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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