Friday, December 19, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 19

The market challenged its all time high as I expected in the cash market. But in pre-market, there was a new all time high last night, so there's a good chance we'll see more ATH next week with a Santa Rally. I still don't see any signs of a micro W4 and this could easily turn into what I call a "stand alone W3" given the momentum this rally is carrying. This week's rally is the strongest in 2 years and we could be seeing the start of a W3 at the intermediate level given the Inverted Head and Shoulders in place, so be careful with those shorts (that is if anyone is brave enough to be shorting this).

Also, I wanted to elaborate more on the long term pattern since it looks very likely now that the 2484 target might be reached in 2015. I didn't explain yesterday how I came up with the number but this is all based on the broadening triangle pattern, not on Elliott Wave. Basically, you subtract the low from the upper trendline and then add it to its break out point.

At 2400-2500, market cap would be near or at all time highs relative to GDP and it would be a great time for a bear market to correct all the gains since 666. But one can never really be sure using Elliott Wave or fundamental opinions, so the best as I've always said is to follow the trend. Also, I should add the next bear market is likely to be a correction and not some catastrophic sell off as orthodox Elliott Wave calls for. Very long term counts (Cycles, super cycles, etc) are inherently flawed and should never be considered, much less traded. Otherwise, one would be stuck calling for a top every other week like Mr. Elliott Wave himself, Robert Prechter. Who has been calling for a top for the last 25 years and most recently in September in his "This is IT!!" newsletter edition.. I'm sure he'll be calling for a "point of recognition" again next week and the week after.. the man takes insanity to a new level.

Robert Prechter: Stock Market High Of Our Lifetime Was Hit Sept. 19th

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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