Thursday, April 17, 2014

Bullish Set Up

The market made another high on this particular wave from the 1814 low and now we have an even better looking neckline for a potential Inverse Head and Shoulders. Please note that I tend to anticipate HS and ISH formations to trade the expected moves, so this IHS has not yet formed until we get couple of more waves. In fact, we might not even get an IHS. But for all intent and purposes, the market has a bullish set up and that is the pattern I am expecting. Last week when the market was in sell off mode I wrote:

Thursday - April 10th

"The ideal target for the C wave is 1812 (which implies a correction and a resumption of the bullish trend)"

- The market bottomed at 1814 in the cash market

Friday - April 11th

"However, a counter rally that reaches 1872 will be setting up the market for the resumption of the bullish trend and consequently new all time highs."

- So per my statement, today's rally topping at 1869 qualifies as a sign that the market is going to take out the all time high.

I am now just looking for the correction/W2 to unload the VXX position and go long. Had Google and IBM missed earnings last week the market would have probably reached sub-1800. But despite these announcements, the NASDAQ was actually rallying more than all other major indexes. So it looks like we're headed for 1900+. The short term trend and intermediate trend are still yellow but they will likely turn green early next week. The bear camp will need a bearish miracle or something from Russia to get back the lost momentum. If you are short, you want 1837 to break to balance out the bullish run from the last couple of days.

Short Term Trend = Neutral
Medium Term Trend = Bullish Trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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