Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Another 50 DMA Test

The market continued to rally past the 50 DMA today and its peak is high enough to form the neckline for another Inverse Head and Shoulders that targets 1920. Also, going by my wave calculations, if this leg from yesterday's low is a W1 then 5 waves will end in the 1930 range. So the things have turned around somewhat for the bullish case but the critical part comes in the coming correction, which should start in the next session or two. If we get a successful test of the Trend Average and the 50 DMA, it is very likely that the bull run will continue. Bears must break and close under 1837 to keep their case alive.

I am underwater on my VXX but I will be selling hopefully at break even or a profit if the bears do their job. There are good excuses to sell tomorrow (Google and IBM miss), so if bears fail to gain momentum with these news then it will be time to go long.

Short Term Trend = Bearish Trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish Trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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