The market gapped up as I was expecting but it retraced a good portion of the gap and put it an Ascending Triangle by the end of day that targets 1807, which could also be interpreted as a nested 1-2. So it seems likely that the market will mount a challenge to the 50 DMA in the next couple of sessions per the count I posted. One scenario I forgot to add yesterday is a "micro" ABC, meaning the market is working on a C wave that targets the 1802-1808 area (Thanks Eddy for pointing it out), which is just a few points short of the 50 DMA at 1813. If the micro ABC is in play then we would see another bearish wave to a lower low for the month. Personally, I lean towards a test of the 50 DMA and the Trend Average which will probably fall under 1820 tomorrow.
I ended up making good money (40% of yesterday's profit) on my "bet" from yesterday but I didn't double it. I sold XIV (12/12) when the market found initial resistance at 1793 and bought SPXL(3X SP500) in the last few minutes of the session when the Ascending Triangle break out seemed imminent. I hope to take profit tomorrow and then I'll have to decide to buy back VXX if the market reaches the 50 DMA.
Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish
No comments:
Post a Comment