Monday, October 28, 2013

Correction to TA?

Now that the market has made another higher high that makes the micro 5th wave look more proportionate, I think there is a good chance we will see some sort of correction starting in the next session or two. If this is the end of the stand alone W3 then a good level for a retrace would be 1740 or basically a Trend Average test. I'd be surprised if we see a stronger correction without another new high but one can never be 100% sure. When the stronger bearish wave comes it will probably be a profit taking correction and not a fundamental change in the economic background that triggers it, so at some point we will see a bottom (around the 200 dma?) and the markets will keep going up and up. The US economy continues to grow, Europe has come out of recession and Asia looks stable so we have a good recipe for a continued worldwide rally in equities and other assets. And this is in addition to a weaker dollar, which probably will end up trading at 1.40 vs the euro very soon. Funny how fast people can forget (EU PIIGS bailouts)..

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors. 

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