Friday, April 12, 2013

Target for final W5 1642-1668.

A few days ago I posted a revised target for the end of the entire wave from 1343 at 1617 after seeing confirmation for Int W4 and the initial strength of the first bullish wave. The day after I posted this target, the market broke out decisively out of its trading range and put in one of strongest bullish waves for the year, making my revised target somewhat easily attainable. But now that we had the top of this wave confirmed, I can go back and re-calculate the optimal target.  Looking at the charts, I think is very likely that Int W3 topped at 1563 and the two bottoms (1538 and 1539) were Int W4. The previous top I had for W3 at 1530 was actually the top for W3 of Int W3, just like 1485 was W4 for Int W3 and not "the" Int W4 I originally thought when I projected 1589 as the ideal target. So now that the picture seems more clear, if we add the length of W1 to 1538 then we get the ideal target if 1642, which would line up with the May time frame. The one thing that remains to be seen is how the wave from 1539 will behave, if it breaks into a 5 wave count then I have a higher target at 1668. So a general target range for the end of the entire wave is 1642-1668. With that said, the structure could be complete as it is if we use the initial assumed parameters but all trends are supporting higher prices so I'll go with the new targets.

Today the market started its correction and I am assuming an ABC ot a double Z. If the correction tests the Trend Average or enter its Fib retrace territory, I will assume we are seeing a 5 wave count and now a SAW3. I ended up position trading my VXX bag and improved its cost by 35 cents, so my cost avg has dropped to $19.86 which is not too terrible of a price. And I will exit the position if we test the TA and buy back in the 1600's.. that is of course assuming the TA test holds.

Have a Great Weekend!

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish 

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