Wednesday, March 20, 2013

W4 done?




















Seems like the bullish leg today was a W1, specially since the Dow made a new high. So we could see another Inverted Head and Shoulders like we saw on the last Int W4. In fact, they look identical and it would be too easy if the same scenario repeated itself. But considering there is that 1545-1548 resistance level I mentioned last week and where the first bearish wave put in a bottom. I wouldn't be all that surprised to see that level successfully tested before launching a bullish W3 to break through all time highs for the S&P 500 once and for all. Obviously, the market could do a double ZZ or some sort of sideways correction but new highs seem likely in the near term given the pattern and don't be all that surprised if the market reaches 1589 in the not too distant future for the ideal 5 wave count I have been talking about since February.

Today I made twice as much coffee money as Monday, since I made a very profitable error last night. And I bought back the VXX I sold Monday for $20.45 and will be selling hopefully at resistance again and then load back up for the bullish ride.. it would be just too easy if this actually turned out this way but that's what I am seeing. Lastly, the TA is back to bullish today.


Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio
  • 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) initiated September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013 - Bought back 5% 02/27/13 - bought 5% 03/01/13 - bought 5% 03/04/13 - bought 5% 03/06/13

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 
  • Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.45 on 03/20/13 
  •  Bought 2000 FXI@ 36.21 on 03/19/13 - Sold 2000 FXI@ 37.08 on 03/20/13 +0.87
  •  Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.73 on 03/14/13 - Sold 1000 VXX@ 21.85 on 03/18/13 +1.12
  • Bought 1500 SPXU@ 30.98 on 02/27/13 - Sold 1500 SPXU @ 31.05 on 03/01/13 +0.07
  • Bought 2000 VXX @22.38 on 02/12/13 - Stopped out @22.38 on 02/14. Bought back @22.05 on 02/15/13 - Sold all 2800 VXX on 02/25/13 @ 24.30 = +2.05
  • Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.70 to position trade on 01/25/2013. Took loss $2.00
  • Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
  • Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
  • Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
  • Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
  • Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
  • Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
  • Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
  • Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
  • Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.
Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $4,625*

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