Potential targets for W5

Today's rally confirms my speculation that Monday's high started the Int W5 leg. So with that out of the way, all we need to do is add 40 points to the Int W4 low of 1538 and voila! However, the W3 coming out of the range doesn't seem as strong as I had hoped. So unless there isn't a stronger follow through next week, the market might be putting in an Ending Diagonal or a Rising Wedge. Also, I was wrong in assuming there would be stronger short covering so we'll just have to see how the market reacts if 1576 gets taken out. I figured experienced traders (like Doug Kass among others) who have been short for the entire rally this year would have some sort of stop loss at some point and the logical stop would be this range. If we see a strong follow through that ends the current wave from 1551 at around 1580, then this Int W5 will likely reach the 1589 target I have been mentioning since last month and who knows, my 1600 target for 2013 might just be reached with some extra fuel. Whatever the case, this has been one of the best quarters in over a decade and the best thing about this was seeing how using the Trend Average navigated us through uncertainty and all those overbought oscillators (some with multi-year overbought readings). "Regular" technical analysis would have kept the average joe and apparently many professional traders out of the market or worst yet shorting for past 2 months or so. Lastly, I have been working on some calculations that go in tandem with the trend to project waves in early stages. That's why you've seen me project waves in advance more than usual lately as I am basically real time testing. So far, this has helped me improve my trading accuracy.

I ended up the day almost flat on my short term margin trade as the SSEC and the HSI sold off last night but today's US strength buffered the fall. But I am keeping my long as I think a bottom is forming in those markets. I am expecting those markets to resume their rallies in Q2 and the US to correct to the 200 day moving average during the same time. So I will be loading on lots of VXX in the 19's hopefully.

Have a Great Holiday Weekend!

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) initiated September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013 - Bought back 5% 02/27/13 - bought 5% 03/01/13 - bought 5% 03/04/13 - bought 5% 03/06/13

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy

• Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.09 on 03/27/13
• Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.07 - Sold 1000 FXI@ 37.29 on 03/26/13 = +0.22
• Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.47 on 03/20/13  - Sold 1000 VXX@ 20.91 on 03/21/13 = +0.44
•  Bought 2000 FXI@ 36.21 on 03/19/13 - Sold 2000 FXI@ 37.08 on 03/20/13 = +0.87
•  Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.73 on 03/14/13 - Sold 1000 VXX@ 21.85 on 03/18/13 = +1.12
• Bought 1500 SPXU@ 30.98 on 02/27/13 - Sold 1500 SPXU @ 31.05 on 03/01/13 = +0.07
• Bought 2000 VXX @22.38 on 02/12/13 - Stopped out @22.38 on 02/14. Bought back @22.05 on 02/15/13 - Sold all 2800 VXX on 02/25/13 @ 24.30 = +2.05
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.70 to position trade on 01/25/2013. Took loss $2.00
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $5,270*  

* Margin position avg is $20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k