Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Trend being tested

The market reversed all of yesterday's gain and some more today and in turn invalidating the possible intermediate 5 wave count. So I am now labeling the waves from 1292 as an ABC, the C wave in particular is a messy one given the fact that we had a holiday weekend and prices from pre-market are not reflected on the cash market. Assuming the C wave topped at 1335, I see a bearish 5 wave count which could have finished today or possibly tomorrow. Also, the market closed couple of points under the TA and in order for the trend to remain bullish the market can not close underneath it again tomorrow. The once the trend is solidified (to the upside or downside), we will see a 45-50 point move.

From the technical perspective, odds favor a much bigger rally that what we've seen so far and not really further downside. But obviously, oversold can get more oversold so we'll just have to wait and see.

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