Monday, May 7, 2012

Bearish Trend Change

The markets dropped hard in pre-market last night but at the time of the opening prices did not reflect the actual damage. So we have a pre-market vs cash dilemma again, pre-market confirms a bearish W3 and with more likely more downside ahead. But the cash market still shows a 90%+ retracement on an impulse wave, so it is unclear what will happen next just using wave counts. However, the fact the market failed at rallying today manages to turn the short term trend average bearish again so now the ball is on the bulls court to overcome the trend if we are to see a consistent rally above 1400. Whatever happens, I expect a test of the TA so I will decide then what to do with my long position taken on Friday and the VIX hedge. I get the feeling that if the market gets stopped at the 1387-1392 level we will see 1300 before 1400. For one we would have a nice Head and Shoulders again targeting 1300 more or less (assuming the low is already in for this wave).

I've been procrastinating on updating my portfolio but I'll do it tonight or tomorrow. I have SDS, VXX, and FXI trades that happened last week that I have not added.

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