Monday, August 1, 2011

Expanded Flat

I was way off today in assuming the rally today was real. I had been right on every wave since mid June but I did not see the one coming today at all, so I am now wondering what structure is the market in. Technically speaking, it is still a correction in all the sense of the word because 1258 has not been breached after months of selling. But the fact the market finds itself under the TA, the 50 day MA and the 200 day failing as support is bearish and perhaps might signal a significant correction ahead. I am watching carefully how the market bounces and how it reacts when it reaches the 50 day MA or the TA (whichever comes first), if it can not be re-captured, chances are we will see lower lows ahead. Also, now that I've been testing and trading with the TA for almost a year now, I think it might work best mechanically. Meaning, sell when under, buy when above this level. Sometimes it gets whipsawed but whatever points might be lost there, it's more than made up by being right on the trend. Had I sold all my longs at the time the market went underneath it at 1328, I would have saved myself 4% at least.. anyway, tomorrow it's debt ceiling day so we'll see how that rally behaves.

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