Monday, August 8, 2011

1018 target?

Markets continued its panic selling today and it ended horribly in a solid red candle day with high volume. At this point the market is in complete panic mode and it's technically impossible to predict when the madness will end. Fundamentally speaking, traders are trying to discount a possible recession but at the end of the day, it comes down to how much companies will make going forward so guessing what the right level for the S&P becomes a wild guess at best. However, market panics create opportunities and there will be one once a bottom is found. The price channel is very steep so a counter rally will most likely be very sharp and retrace maybe 50% of this bearish wave. So I am looking to see if I get lucky.. I entered the market at 200% long at 1168 but got stopped out at break even. Then towards the end of the day I entered at 1125 and then got stopped out at break even again. So tomorrow I am hoping for capitulation but I will be using the same method of going long at key levels and raising stops to break even as soon as the market starts trading above my break even price. I am hoping to basically compensate for the loss of my 1321 position on the counter rally, so if I come out even I will be lucky. It is still my belief that the market will target the 200 day ma on the coming bounce. The TA at this point is at 1246 and this is the first time I've seen it so far away from a market close (126 points.. usually it rarely goes beyond 40, that's how unusual this sell off is). Also, it's worth noting the 13/34 system is officially negative today so that calls for selling or staying in cash until it turns positive again.

Lastly, the target for August that I had was met today and then some at 1150. And the next target is 1018 after the bounce (or perhaps even tomorrow) should the market keep trading below the TA. 1018 is 50% of the rally from 666 to 1370.

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