Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Potential change of trend

I was expecting a gap up today but nothing like we saw this morning. All the near resistance levels were broken and so was the TA so this could well signal a change of trend if the market does not reverse hard in the next couple of sessions. The wave we saw today was a W3 of some kind and the closing being a W4. So I expect a W5 after hours or tomorrow and then a sell off or correction. I think how the market behaves at the TA/support will give us a clue of what we are in for.

Today I posted two charts. The first one is an Ichimoku chart and it signals a bullish turn in both clouds and candles. Also, we now have two very bullish technical patterns. We have the Inverse Head and Shoulders in place targeting 1500 and the potential Ascending triangle targeting the same range as well. So if the next bearish wave turns out to be just a correction, then we're on to a massive bullish wave on a break out of this triangle. The second chart is the EW chart and I still have the bearish option up because the short term trend is not confirmed bullish. So I am labeling the only bearish way possible which is an expanded flat. If this is the case, then we enter into a major sell off in the next session or two simple as that. I plan to short this wave at resistance which should come in at 1339 or 1344 and I expect the wave to test the TA or come close to it at the very least, which is currently at 1318.

Shorting in a bullish trending market is very risky. So if you're a short, make sure you are not holding against the trend.

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