Tuesday, April 5, 2011

New High for the Year?

The market started its move up in what it seems like the initial 1-2 of W5. So we'll probably see a new high for the markets as soon as this week. There is a bearish cross on the MACD but given the bullishness of the trend it could be quickly reversed tomorrow. I think the market continues to go up primarily because of the expected inflationary effects from it. The fact that commodities continue to go up and the dollar continues to depreciate against other currencies is a signal US dollar assets will nominally be worth more in the future. Therefore, the stock market will continue to go up just to price in these inflationary effects from the QE.

I am waiting in cash to short when the W5 is done or go long when the market retraces to a proper Fib level. I also invested 6% of my long term portfolio in Gold today as I believe it is breaking out.

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