Monday, March 7, 2011

Sucker Rally or just a Correction?

The market continues to be volatile and it continues to triangulate and setting what might be another leg up. However, we've seen several rallies in the past few sessions get quickly reversed in higher than average volume. So it remains to be seen how the next bullish wave unfolds. Usually when up days are in low volume and down days are in heavy volume, it indicates distribution by institutions to smaller players. So there is the possibility the last 3 rally attempts have been "sucker rallies". It's hard to tell as long as the triangle is in place but the oil problem is not about to go away. And today I saw for the first time headlines on the mainstream news on the Day of Rage in Saudi Arabia I first mentioned over a week ago. So the catalyst for a really big sell off is very obvious.

The market closed under the Trend Average and the market based on price action is looking bearish. However, I covered my shorts at 1307 today and will re-enter at a higher price. I suspect we're going to get one more rally to 1325+ and then plunge on the "news" from Saudi Arabia. Another 10-20% spike in oil should bring some sense into investors who have not discounted the oil problem.

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