Friday, March 4, 2011

Market Resilience or Blind Optimism?

The title of the post summarizes the question most people are asking themselves right now. Oil is almost at $105 (up almost 25% in 2 weeks) and employment numbers did not come up as strong as most analysts were predicting, yet we had a mild sell off. I mentioned volatility common at tops and we are seeing that right now but as it stands, the market could put in a break out wave to 1360 or collapse as soon as Monday. There is an Ascending Triangle in place that targets 1362 and the close today was above the Trend Average. So there is a good possibility for a bullish wave. At the same time, there is a 1-2 wave count that points to a sell off so we will have a better picture early next week. I pared down my shorts at the low today but I'm hedged altogether. Sooner or later people will realize $100 plus oil is going to stop the recovery. I pumped my first $4 per gallon gas today and soon gas prices are going to be all over the news and it will be interesting to see how the market will handle it.

Have a good weekend!

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