Thursday, November 4, 2010

Market Update November 4th

I was expecting the market to gap up in a W3 Ascending Triangle break out and it did so in full force. All the technical pattern targets I had been posting for days were reached today. I think it's funny how 1196 held for weeks and next thing you know we have a 20+ point close above that. Anyway, I see the 5 wave pattern done or close to being done before going into a correction to the 1200 area and then another launch higher to the 1234-1250 area in a W5 (If there is a 5th wave left). The market is now equal in length to the Feb-April wave and the only difference is that we are at 9 weeks vs 10 weeks on that rally. So once we have time and price satisfied, we should see a turn. But as I tell myself everyday, as long as that number I put up on the right hand side of this blog does not get closed under the trend is UP.

I went short at 1213 today without stops and I am holding overnight short positions.

Time and Price Relation

Now that we are testing 1219, I think we are close to the top of the rally from 1041. I posted about a month ago that there were similarities in the Feb-April wave in time and price and that there was more upside to come. And now that the price element has been reached, we have the time element left. It's hard to call a top when the trend is clearly up but my guess is that we will find a top between here and 1235.

Feb-April rally was 175 points and 10 weeks in duration. The current rally is 177 point and 9 weeks in duration.

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