Friday, November 19, 2010

Market Update - November 19th

EOD Update: The market bounced off the 1190 level and managed to close over the trendline at 1199, which now confirms a short term bullish uptrend. Looking at the waves, today's "reversal" is part of a W5. We will have a Fib correction for this 5 Waves up and then we'll get another 5 Waves up. The question is if this is a W1 of W5 to 1250 or part of a C wave, which implies a corrective wave. Whatever it is, the trends I analyze have worked wonders so I'll be ready when the time comes. I ended up covering my shorts at 1190 and going long using FXI and will start hedging this position in the 1205 area (where I expect this last sub-minuette wave to top).

Morning Update: If the 1190 level holds, it could potentially set up the right shoulder of an inverted H&S targeting 1235. Given the fact the inverted H&S from 8/31 targets 1250, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the leg that will take the market there. Trend is still down, so first the market needs a close over 1198 to change that. Until then I am assuming lower prices.

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