Thursday, August 1, 2019

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 1

The TA was again whipsawed this week, a first double-whipsaw since I started using this signal and the market is now leaning bearish with substantial downside to come if prices fall below 2926. Like I said on my last post, I don't think China will be yielding much and more tariffs like the ones announced today will just accelerate the path towards recession. Trump is working hard at negotiating something that can no be negotiated and that is forcing China to change some of its laws. If the US was 50%+ of their export market it would make sense (Mexico capitulated to tariff threats in less than a week) but at 18%, it hurts but it's bearable. Also, how can you negotiate the fact that China is able to produce some goods more efficiently and cheaper than everybody else? trade deficits are as natural as income inequality. Some skills are better rewarded than others and it should be the market that decides not people in politics.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

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